The FA announced on Thursday that FA Cup replays would be scrapped from the first round onwards from next season

The FA announced on Thursday that FA Cup replays would be scrapped from the first round onwards from next season

Liverpool’s search for a new manager has the club resolved to be “brave over popular” with their appointment, with three candidates already ruled out.

The narrative of Liverpool’s hunt for a successor to Jurgen Klopp has already taken a number of turns since the news of his resignation in January.

Xabi Alonso became the immediate favourite for the job, but the club kept their own counsel when it came to rumours, with the confirmation that he would stay at Bayer Leverkusen seemingly less of a shock to them.

Brighton‘s Roberto De Zerbi was another early front-runner, but it is now widely reported that he is not under consideration.

Friday brought the news that Julian Nagelsmann has extended his contract as Germany manager, while earlier in the week, ex-Bayern Munich boss Niko Kovac publicly dismissed claims he was in the running.

Sporting CP’s Ruben Amorim is now the overwhelming favourite, but The Athletic‘s David Ornstein insists Liverpool are “prepared to be brave over popular” with their choice.

Amorim, he insists, is “not a shoo-in” for the job, which indicates that, at least where the media is concerned, no decision has been made yet.

The notion of being “brave over popular” could lead Liverpool to a shock candidate, though from an outside perspective there seem few viable options.

It has been maintained that, benefiting from the input of director of research William Spearman and new arrivals Michael Edwards (CEO of Football) and Richard Hughes (sporting director), the search will be data-led.

Whether that could lead them to a left-field target such as Bournemouth‘s Gary O’Neil, for example, would certainly fit into the “brave over popular” mantra.

O’Neil is now fourth-favourite among bookmakers, behind only Amorim, De Zerbi and Bologna manager Thiago Motta, but there would be major question marks over his credentials.

Interestingly, odds have shortened in recent days when it comes to Feyenoord boss Arne Slot, while Thomas Tuchel, Unai Emery and Vitor Pereira, who currently coach of Saudi Pro League side Al Shabab, are also deemed in the frame.

Sources in Portugal have been adamant that Amorim is the primary candidate and even that talks had progressed with the 39-year-old’s representatives.

But perhaps the key takeaway when it comes to Ornstein’s update is that, when it comes to Liverpool’s new manager pursuit, the club are simply giving nothing away.

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Liverpool boss Jurgen Klopp has been talking ahead of his team's Premier League visit to Fulham on Sunday

Liverpool boss Jurgen Klopp has been talking ahead of his team's Premier League visit to Fulham on Sunday

So, it’s over to you, Aston Villa. The future of England’s European football is in your hands.

Well, yours and Real Madrid’s. And Paris Saint-Germain’s. Oh, and Roma’s actually.

It turns out England’s hopes of an extra place in European competition next season rests in quite a few hands.

After a chastening week for English clubs in two of the three UEFA club tournaments, none of them can afford a fumble if the nation is to land an additional spot.

Before the quarter-finals of the Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League, Opta gave England a 70.6 per cent chance of winning a two-horse race with Germany and landing a fifth Champions League place, which in turn would have almost certainly pushed qualification for the other European competitions as far down as eighth place in the Premier League.

After the quarter-finals, that probability has plummeted to 1.1 per cent.

This might be the appropriate time for a Jim Carrey meme. “So, you’re telling me there’s a chance?”

Well, yes, there is still a chance. But having previously looked almost certain, England now need to thread the eye of a mathematical needle to claim it.

Why are there extra Champions League places on offer?

The Champions League will expand from 32 to 36 teams from the start of the 2024-25 season.

Of those four extra group-stage slots, one will be given to the league that finishes this season fifth in UEFA’s country ranking, which combines coefficient points accrued over the past five seasons.

One will be earned by a domestic title winner from one of the continent’s less prominent top flights via the ‘champions path’ qualifiers. The remaining two will go to the leagues whose clubs perform best across this season’s European competitions.

These latter two are being called the ‘European Performance Spots’ by UEFA and could see the fifth-placed Premier League team progress directly into next season’s new-look group stage.

(Graphic: Sam Richardson)Which nations are leading the race for an extra Champions League place?

Heading into this week’s second legs of the quarter-finals, Italy were almost guaranteed an extra Champions League spot next season with Germany and England neck and neck (on 16.785 and 16.750 points).

Atalanta and Fiorentina reaching the semi-finals of the Europa League and Europa Conference League has resulted in Opta giving the country a 100 per cent chance of finishing in the top two places in the coefficient chart.

So one of the places is sewn up, leaving Germany and England to contest the second.

Atalanta knocked Liverpool out of the Europa League (Marco Luzzani/Getty Images)Why were the Champions League quarter-finals so important?

The draw for the last eight handed England a clear path to claim the extra place.

If Arsenal had seen off Bayern Munich and Manchester City had beaten Real Madrid, they would have faced each other in the semi-finals, guaranteeing an English club would make the final.

That should have sealed a fifth Champions League spot for England, particularly if Atletico Madrid had knocked out Borussia Dortmund on Tuesday.

However, Arsenal and City both exited, while Dortmund overcame a first-leg deficit to progress to the semi-finals with a 5-4 aggregate victory over Atletico.

England will also not have representation in the Europa League semi-finals. Liverpool were beaten 3-1 over two legs to Atalanta, while West Ham United failed to beat Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen, a team who are yet to lose a game in any competition this season.

So Villa are the only remaining English club in any of the three competitions and England’s minuscule hopes of the extra place largely lie with them.

Dortmund are in the Champions League semi-finals after beating Atletico (Leon Kuegeler/Getty Images)Is there still a route for England to gain the extra place?

There is, as 1.1 per cent is not quite zero, but that is where the simple maths ends.

There are two ways Villa can help England pull off the almost impossible but both seem, well, almost impossible.

First, we need to explain how the coefficient table is worked out.

The places are awarded on a points average rather than a total, so countries with more teams in European competition are not given an advantage over countries with fewer.

Before the semi-finals, England’s average is 17.375 compared to Germany’s 17.928, so Villa need to make up a gap of 0.553 points in the average — which, because the Premier League had eight teams in European competitions this season, means Unai Emery’s side must accrue at least 4.424 points.

Points are awarded for each leg of two-legged knockout ties with two points for a win and one for a draw. Villa would also earn an extra point for qualifying for the Conference League final.

Can Villa be England’s saviours? Well, it’s possible (Mustafa Yalcin/Anadolu via Getty Images)

The coefficient points for second legs are based on the result after 120 minutes (ie, including extra time but excluding penalties).

So in the unlikely event of the three remaining German teams (Bayern, who face Real Madrid, Dortmund, who play PSG, and Leverkusen, who are drawn with Roma) losing all six games — both legs of their respective ties — Villa winning both legs would be enough to clinch the extra spot for England as they would claim five points to Germany’s zero.

If Villa won the final they would gain an extra two points, giving England an extra seven overall.

In that scenario, Germany would need to add 0.322 points to their coefficient average, which, taking into account they had seven teams in Europe this season, means their remaining sides would need 2.254 points — three points in reality.

So even if Villa win both legs of their Conference League semi-final and then the final, German teams getting three draws from their six semi-final games would be enough, even if they were all knocked out over the two legs.

Follow the Champions League on The Athletic…

(Top photo: Sameer Al-Doumy/AFP via Getty Images)

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It's been a bad week for English clubs in Europe, but a fifth Champions League spot is not impossible – Aston Villa are the only hope

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Fulham head coach Marco Silva believes his squad is in the best place they could be, as he aims to make life difficult for Liverpool on Sunday.

Liverpool and Arsenal's weekend defeats may have handed the title to Man City, Trent Alexander-Arnold has told Sky Sports - but Jurgen Klopp thinks being "hunters" suits his side best.

Man City came into last weekend's round of Premier League fixtures third in the table as they chase a record fourth consecutive Premier League title, but shock home defeats for their rivals put them two points clear at the top with six games remaining.

Liverpool were stunned at home by Crystal Palace on Sunday, before Arsenal also slipped up against Aston Villa later on the same day to hand Pep Guardiola's side the initiative and see them end a match day top of the table for the first time since November.

Those set of results were even more ominous for Arsenal and Liverpool given City's form in the second half of recent seasons.

They are unbeaten since December 6 and have won 11 of 14 games since the mid-way point of this campaign leading Liverpool defender Alexander-Arnold to tell Sky Sports that giving City a clear route to glory so close to the end of the season was tantamount to handing them the Premier League trophy.

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"Arsenal experienced it, we've experienced it two or three times, when you get into a title race with Man City they are borderline perfect," he said.

"You can't slip up or make mistakes. If you give them the upper hand they don't really blink in those moments. They don't seem vulnerable. It's a well-oiled machine.

"That's what they do, they click and there's no stopping them. Giving them this advantage with six games to go is almost like handing them the title. All we can do is hope someone does us a favour and get our goal difference up.

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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Crystal Palace's win against Liverpool in the Premier League

"We've got six games left, it'll fly by. Our aim is to win every game - that's all we can and try to capitalise. It will be difficult but I've seen over the last few weeks of odds and percentage chances of who is going to win the league has fluctuated with just one result. Anything can happen in the Premier League.

"They are a fantastic team with the squad they've got, the manager, it's hard to think they won't win it at this point. Stranger things have happened in the Premier League."

Even after Liverpool's defeat, City would have ended the weekend behind Arsenal in the title race had the Gunners continued their five-game home winning league run and beaten Villa.

Alexander-Arnold felt the Gunners' first league defeat of 2024 may been partly influenced by Liverpool's defeat, and the lure of moving a point clear of either of their title rivals had proven too much of a distraction.

"If those fixtures were reversed and we played second and Arsenal played first maybe it would've been a different mentality," he said.

"It all comes down to mentality. I think our result played a part in Arsenal's result. They have potentially got too excited and thought this is our chance, this is what we need to do.

"Maybe they overthought things whereas if us and City both won it made them think, 'we need to just win' rather than it being a chance to breakaway from the pack. None of us have been in a three-horse race, so it's difficult."

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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Aston Villa’s win against Arsenal in the Premier League Klopp: Hunters tag suits us best in title race

Liverpool have played the role of 'hunter', sitting on Man City's tail until the very end, a number of times over recent years.

When the two have been locked in a tight title race, they have always come out second-best but Klopp told Sky Sports this year could be the moment when Liverpool do upset the odds and edge out their rivals to lift the trophy.

"Maybe it's the right moment we became a hunter again - who knows," he said. "We played our game and we watched Arsenal's game with one eye, 'oh, they lost that game'. That softens the situation slightly but then people say Man City will win all of their remaining games - of course they can.

"Can we win football games? Can we be us again? If we can do that then we'll have a good chance of doing something really special. And if not, then someone else deserves to be champions.

"How do we approach it? With a fear of failing or the excitement of maybe succeeding. I want to succeed. Until someone proves me wrong, there's no other way to do it. We've done that in the past. Let's see. I'd love to have the chance on the last matchday and then we can see what we can do."

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Gary Neville thinks that Liverpool were 'hanging in there' in regards to the title race, and now they're starting to struggle nearing the end of the season

Gary Neville called Liverpool's title challenge a "monumental achievement" when reflecting on the disappointment of their Palace defeat last weekend, pointing to the Reds finishing outside the Champions League spots last season - as well as having to adapt to a largely new midfield in 2023/24.

When the same suggestion was put to Klopp, he said he had not expected to lead Liverpool to this point in what is his final season, and that even finishing in the top four would have been acceptable.

"Who would've thought that?" he said. "I wouldn't have been angry if someone told me at the start of the season if we could just qualify for the Champions League.

"I wouldn't have just taken it as you've got to let the season have a chance but it's been a positive season. But if you went and asked people with a microphone after the Palace game, would they have said it was a great season?

"It's not like that. We are influenced by things that happen recently but the job is to get a positive view again - it starts with me and I'm in a good mood. I will try my best to give that to the boys. The next big job is in front of us."

Watch Fulham vs Liverpool live on Sky Sports Premier League from 4pm on Sunday, kick-off 4.30pm.

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